Organic/Natural agriculture is a growing segment of the North Fork economy.Princess Beef cattle on Rogers Mesa
New Study Repeats Changing of Delta County Economic Basics
Paonia Smartest Fastest Growing Town in County
By Thomas Wills
A draft Better Cities Inc. study of Delta County economics as of 2014 paints a mixed picture of the local status quo, some dark clouds but also a ray or two of sunshine. The opening line of the summary section: “In the past year (2014), Delta County (the “County”) has seen slight improvements to its economy following several years of little to no growth.” Faint praise.
It then notes that the recent decline in coal mining employment has eliminated a portion of the higher paying jobs in the county. (Note: at the end of September Bowie #2 Mine announced a layoff of an additional 80 plus workers effective at the end ofNovember.) The bright spot from 2009 to 2014 has been the agricultural industry which has steadily grown during that period. It then suggests that the local economic planners: identify the best ways to leverage the strength of the agriculture industry to provide additional, higher wage jobs and identify other areas to diversify the local economy.
In demographics: the median age in the County increased from 42.7 in 2000 to 46.9 in 2013 and is significantly higher than the state average of 36.8. 65% of the adult population are engaged in the labor force and the unemployment rate as of late 2014 stood at 6% compared to the State average of 5.2%. A net total of some 2,890 residents commute out-of-county to jobs, but this includes those that work at the West Elk Mine in Gunnison County.
Population for Delta County peaked at about 31,000 in 2010 and then declined due to out migrations of miners and related jobs. Currently the numbers appear to be flattening out at 30,265, close to the 2000 census number. (Note: this shows that a number of miners present in 2000, but since emigrated, have been replaced with new arrivals.) In a bit of a surprise the fastest growing municipality in Delta County between 2010 and the present is Paonia, with Hotchkiss and Crawford having a slight decline but mostly flat and near the 2000 census numbers. The City of Delta took the biggest hit after the economic downturn with a significant decline in populations. The unincorporated County also showed wild demographic swings possibly due to a lack of solid data.
In education, Delta County residents have roughly half the percentage of college graduates with at least a batchelors degree than the State average. Paonia has the highest level of college graduates (26%) among municipalities in the county.
The most prominent sectors in Delta County in terms of number of jobs are public education, agriculture, retail trade and health services. (Note: the two largest employers in the County are the School District and Delta County Memorial Hospital, both government entities.) The Agricultural sector provides the largest number of direct “basic” jobs, those which bring in revenue from outside the County. This was tempered by an observation that “Although agriculture provides a large number of jobs to the region, its contributions to payroll are far less significant.” In other words, lots of people work in agriculture but they are either working owners or lower paid employees. Mining, retail and health services also provide more “basic” jobs.
According to the study summary: “Wages and personal transfers combine for a total personal income of $604M, or $19,729 per capita.” It notes that of this amount “personal transfers” (investment income for out of the area, Social Security, pensions etc.) amount to a majority of this amount, some $483 M. Then, 41.6% of the $483 M is Social Security. So, a majority of all income in the County is very mobile, earned by people who are not anchored by local jobs. The study then concludes its summary by saying the an economic strategy for the County “should address the declining employment in major industries by expanding emerging industries and identifying ways to increase the economic impact of the agriculture industry.” (Note: for the past decade this has been happening by way of the rapid growth of natural and organic ag sectors including vineyards, wineries and accompanying growth in agri-tourism.)
Three items were identifies as the leading challenges for county economic progress: 1. Government Engagement (Note: lack of action on economic development. Local governments tend to think of ED as the purvue of DCED, and local Chambers of Commerce that have limited resources.) 2. Demographic/Labor Force (Note: The population is trending towards older than State average and less educated thus not as attractive to some industries. On the other hand the transfer of payments income from the older/younger retired affluents makes up the larger portion of income in the County.) 3. Broadband Access (Note: True broadband is now defined as a minimum 25mbs download and 5 mbs upload. Many major business uses need speeds much higher than this. This is not available in the North Fork at affordable rates. Established larger businesses can get much faster access if they are willing to pay the higher costs.)
In a wordcloud chart showing the most repeated ideas among the input received for the study, the biggest one was LACK. Lack of affordable BROADBAND (3rd) and lack of INDUSTRY (2nd).
Identified strengths in order of frequency of mention by stakeholders: outdoor recreation, general agriculture, organic agriculture, natural beauty, hunting and quality of life.
Then in a chart ranked the same identifying “opportunities” : food processing (Note: this would include value-added organic fruits and produce being made into finished products; i.e. Big B’s Juices or Wacky Apple sauces.)
The conclusion repeats many of the points that have already been highlighted in earlier studies as well as by the two year (2012-14) Heart and Soul planning process in the North Fork. Namely: “The mining industry is driven by global commodity market prices and national politics and there is little that can be done to influence these underlying factors. Efforts to identify opportunities in other industries that provide a diverse employment base could help mitigate the boom bust cycle associated with extractive industries.”
And: “The agriculture sector is a key source of outside revenue for the County and is a promising area for future growth. Crop and livestock production has remained an active part of the local economy, and agricultural support services are growing. Measures to reclaim some of the losses that have occurred in food manufacturing may help to further enhance this sector and bring additional prosperity to the region.” The study once again notes that the Agricultural sector may create jobs but they don’t pay well compared to mining and government employment.
Analysis: Not included in the study was a commonsense cautionary note to the County to be careful and not damage one part of the local economy (i.e. retired transfer of payments/rural quality of lifers) by allowing another part (gas drilling or industrial scale confinement animal operations) to negatively impact them, or visa versa by allowing a dense subdivision, or accumulation of smaller lots, next to an organic orchard or existing feedlot. Biting the bullet and adopting land use planning beyond the current hit/miss/ lawsuit structure is one of Delta County’s bigger economic challenges.
Tags: Better Cities Study, Colorado, Crawford, economics, Hotchkiss, Paonia